Daily technical and fundamental analysis of major currency pairs
EUR/USD is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.0850. The pair has been in a gradual uptrend over the past week, supported by weaker US dollar data. The 50-day moving average is providing dynamic support at 1.0810. Key levels to watch: support at 1.0800 and resistance at 1.0870. A breakout above 1.0870 could open the door to 1.0920.
Our Bias: Bullish above 1.0800
GBP/USD has been trading in a tight range between 1.2600 and 1.2700 for the past 5 sessions. The pair is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a breakout is imminent. UK employment data later this week could be the catalyst. A break above 1.2700 targets 1.2780, while a break below 1.2600 opens the door to 1.2520.
Our Bias: Neutral — wait for breakout
Gold continues its relentless rally, trading near $2,935 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying. The yellow metal has gained over 15% year-to-date. With the Fed expected to maintain its dovish stance and inflation showing signs of persistence, gold remains well-supported. Key support at $2,900; resistance at the psychological $3,000 level.
Our Bias: Strongly Bullish
USD/JPY remains elevated near 149.50 as the yield differential between US and Japanese bonds continues to favour the dollar. However, the Bank of Japan has been hinting at further policy normalization, which could strengthen the yen. The 150.00 level remains a key psychological resistance, and intervention risks increase above this level.
Our Bias: Bearish on approach to 150.00
Monday: No major releases
Tuesday: US Retail Sales, UK Employment Data
Wednesday: Fed Interest Rate Decision (key event!)
Thursday: Bank of England Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims
Friday: Flash PMI data (EU, UK, US)
The Fed decision on Wednesday is the biggest event this week. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged, but the dot plot and Powell's press conference could move markets significantly.